Harbingers of tragedy

21st May 2025

The Australian police have been running an ad campaign to discourage driving under the influence, and while I hate advertisements of all kinds (mostly because they show the same ones over… and over… and over…), I liked the foreshadowing of this ad (Warning: contains graphic scenes).

The cinematography heavily emphasised the warning signs of an accident about to happen: holding his credit card up to the speaker box, bumping the curb on the corner, waving to nobody.

This doesn’t just serve as a plot device; there’s a concept in safety science that suggests most major accidents are culminations of smaller issues that go unnoticed.

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact.

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook

Safety-critical industries, therefore, strive to track all accidents, no matter how small. In mining, for example, if small accidents occur within a certain timeframe (I can’t remember exactly, I believe 3 within a week?), the minesite is legally required to immediately shut down. The source of the accidents must be investigated to determine if they are isolated, or symptoms of a bigger issue. Only after the conclusion of the investigation is the minesite allowed to start running again.

Returning to the advertisement, I like that the precursors are emphasised so that they are linked to the conclusive accident. It’s not just saying “don’t drive on drugs”, but provides a mental trigger - if someone bumps a curb, they might remember the bloody scene and pull over, or at the very least slow down and focus harder.

And I’ve learnt that I’m more comfortable watching car accidents than to sit through yet another cleaning product ad.